During Antony Blinken’s recent visit to Beijing, senior Chinese officials and the U.S. secretary of state discussed Taiwan’s upcoming presidential election, according to sources with knowledge of the matter.
Chinese officials shared their concerns about the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) presidential nominee with Blinken, according to the sources.
The political stance of Vice President Lai Ching-te, considered by Beijing to be a member of the “pro-independence” wing, could exacerbate tensions across the Taiwan Strait, further harming relations between the United States and China, according to individuals with knowledge of the situation.
Lai is a member of a DPP faction that is typically more aggressive in asserting Taiwan’s independence than President Tsai Ing-wen, who cannot run again due to term limits. Lai, who once described himself as a “pragmatic worker for Taiwan independence,” has moderated his position and promised as a candidate to adopt a pragmatic approach to China.
In an apparent effort to elicit U.S. cooperation, Chinese officials cited the 2003 warning issued by then-President George W. Bush to another Taiwan president and DPP leader, Chen Shui-bian, whose policies imperilled the status quo across the Taiwan Strait. Bush, with then-Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao seated next to him in the Oval Office, warned the Taiwanese government against fueling independence sentiment.
During a meeting last week, Chinese officials asked Blinken if the United States has a vested interest in the outcome of the January election in Taiwan and if the DPP is a friend, according to sources.
In response to queries from the Chinese, Blinken reportedly reiterated the administration’s stance that the United States will be impartial during the election and will not tolerate any interference in the process.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry and the United States Department of State did not respond to requests for comment.
Taiwan is at the centre of the tense relations between the United States and China, as evidenced by Beijing’s inquiries during Blinken’s two-day visit to China, during which Taiwan was a significant topic of discussion, according to the people who were present.
Washington and Beijing are attempting to stabilise their fraught relations due to disagreements over human rights, a global competition for influence, China’s close alliance with Russia during the Ukraine conflict, U.S. technology controls, and Taiwan.
The Chinese leader Xi Jinping has made the annexation of Taiwan, which Beijing considers to be a part of its territory, a cornerstone of his “China Dream” initiative. In light of the Biden administration’s emphasis on strengthening economic, defence, and political ties with Taipei, the Chinese leadership views the United States as posing a greater threat to this mission. Beijing believes that this position could encourage Taiwanese leaders to relocate the island further away from the mainland.
The two world powers are attempting to restore communication lines that were severed earlier this year when a suspected Chinese surveillance balloon flew over the American heartland.
During Blinken’s trip to Beijing, which was the first by a U.S. secretary of state in five years, he conferred with Xi, Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang, and Xi’s top foreign-affairs official, Wang Yi. Aside from Taiwan, the senior American diplomat and his Chinese counterparts spent a considerable amount of time discussing how the two countries perceive and relate to one another. Chinese officials read from briefing books for several hours while Qin and his advisers simultaneously turned the pages. The U.S. side also expressed grievances, albeit for a shorter period of time.
According to officials in both capitals, the travel will be followed by a series of visits to China by other cabinet-level officials, including Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and climate envoy John Kerry.
Foreign Minister Qin is also likely to travel to the United States in the coming months, paving the way for Xi to attend an annual summit of Asia-Pacific leaders scheduled for November in San Francisco.
However, the procedure is riddled with landmines. Last week, China criticised President Biden for labelling Xi a dictator, adding to the tension between the two leaders. In the coming weeks, the Biden administration is also anticipated to issue an order establishing a mechanism to screen outbound U.S. investments in order to prevent U.S. funds from financing advanced technology in China. In addition to restrictions on the transmission of cutting-edge semiconductors and the equipment used to manufacture them, additional controls on technology exports are being considered.
The clock is currently ticking. The two parties have approximately six months to shore up a relationship that could be further tested next year, when the U.S. presidential election is anticipated to increase pressure on the Biden team to be strong on China, and the Taiwan election could create new sources of tension.
“Blinken’s trip created a window of opportunity to stabilise the relationship and make gains before a very challenging 2024,” said Georgetown University professor and former Obama administration national-security official Evan Medeiros. If Xi visits the United States this autumn, all wagers regarding the future of U.S.-China relations are off.
Beijing is intensifying efforts to prepare the Chinese system for what it perceives to be increased threats from the U.S., particularly regarding Taiwan-related issues, as both parties advance in a zigzag pattern.
While Beijing is concerned that the United States will attempt to boost Lai’s candidature, American officials are on the lookout for indications of Chinese election interference. As the election approaches, Tsai has informed U.S. officials that Beijing is likely to intensify cyberattacks and other forms of pressure against Taiwan.
The Chinese leadership has pledged to eventually seize control of Taiwan, if necessary by force. Recently, Beijing has used economic, diplomatic, and military pressure to force Taiwan’s ruling DPP party, which has long advocated for a distinct Taiwanese identity, to recognise that Taiwan and the mainland are part of “one China.”
In the meantime, U.S. and Taiwanese officials are debating the possibility of Lai visiting the U.S. this summer in order to increase his familiarity with working with the country. In August, Lai may pause in the United States if he attends the inauguration of the president of Paraguay, one of Taiwan’s few remaining diplomatic allies.
According to a poll released earlier this month, the DPP, its main opposition, the China-friendly Kuomintang, and the relatively new Taiwan People’s Party are vying for the presidency in Taiwan.
